Full transparency
Predictions recorded before kickoff and results available for public verification.
Models built on data
We analyse historical football data and statistics to estimate probabilities with a documented methodology.
Responsible use
We provide objective analysis to support informed decisions. No prediction guarantees an outcome.
Our approach
How it works →Our prediction pipeline runs in six stages, each building on the previous:
Data collection and processing
Machine learning models
Continuous validation
Transparency and verification
What is Ganhar?
Ganhar is an advanced sports prediction platform that uses machine learning and statistical modelling to generate probabilistic forecasts for football matches worldwide. Our pipeline processes over 1.4 million historical fixtures to train specialist models across 14 betting markets.
Models & Accuracy
Our models are optimised by market. Feature groups are selected through ablation testing, and models are retrained weekly with the latest data. All accuracy figures shown on this site are out-of-sample — computed on matches the models had never seen during training.
Technology
Ganhar is a purpose-built data engineering platform, not a wrapper around third-party APIs.
- 1.4 million historical matches indexed, covering 900+ leagues and international competitions since 2010.
- Statistical features selected per model — Elo ratings, form, goals, league position, head-to-head, weather, market odds, squad quality, and more.
- Specialised XGBoost models covering 14 markets, each individually optimised via ablation testing. Weekly retraining with 80/20 temporal validation and all metrics computed out-of-sample.
- Robust web architecture with relational database. Python-powered machine learning engine using gradient boosting and numerical optimisation. Dixon-Coles model for exact score probabilities.
- Fully automated pipeline: score sync every 15 minutes, daily feature recomputation, weekly model retraining, and monthly full database refresh.
How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.