When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
38% hit
(4,027)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(12,812)
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(38,293)
60-70% conf.
66% hit
(38,924)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(42,250)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(24,305)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(2,600)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
37% hit
(2,104)
40-50% conf.
45% hit
(4,778)
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(2,660)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(1,220)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(644)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(261)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(34)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(9,694)
60-70% conf.
65% hit
(1,948)
70-80% conf.
70% hit
(53)
80-90% conf.
100% hit
(3)
90-100% conf.
67% hit
(3)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
59% hit
(757)
60-70% conf.
70% hit
(2,610)
70-80% conf.
79% hit
(4,837)
80-90% conf.
86% hit
(2,873)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(624)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
57% hit
(2,078)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(4,155)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(3,805)
80-90% conf.
86% hit
(1,421)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(242)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
57% hit
(2,440)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(3,572)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(3,529)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(1,743)
90-100% conf.
95% hit
(417)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(4,861)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(3,827)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(1,951)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(859)
90-100% conf.
92% hit
(203)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
39% hit
(1,923)
40-50% conf.
43% hit
(8,034)
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(1,225)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(278)
70-80% conf.
83% hit
(82)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(1)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
60-70% conf.
69% hit
(94)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(4,420)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(7,014)
90-100% conf.
95% hit
(19)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(316)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(3,809)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(5,812)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(1,594)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(17)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(4,004)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(5,492)
70-80% conf.
72% hit
(2,000)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(54)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(1)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
62% hit
(390)
60-70% conf.
71% hit
(2,438)
70-80% conf.
78% hit
(5,328)
80-90% conf.
86% hit
(3,354)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(191)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
55% hit
(6,984)
60-70% conf.
66% hit
(3,692)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(909)
80-90% conf.
82% hit
(107)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(9)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
51% hit
(2,219)
60-70% conf.
61% hit
(3,851)
70-80% conf.
69% hit
(4,230)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(1,397)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(4)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
58% hit
(661)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(1,938)
70-80% conf.
76% hit
(4,650)
80-90% conf.
85% hit
(3,617)
90-100% conf.
95% hit
(835)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated