When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
40% hit
(644)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(2,599)
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(15,407)
60-70% conf.
64% hit
(21,166)
70-80% conf.
71% hit
(14,475)
80-90% conf.
79% hit
(13,535)
90-100% conf.
91% hit
(2,983)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
40% hit
(612)
40-50% conf.
45% hit
(1,808)
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,334)
60-70% conf.
61% hit
(743)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(412)
80-90% conf.
78% hit
(173)
90-100% conf.
95% hit
(64)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(3,613)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(1,320)
70-80% conf.
64% hit
(196)
80-90% conf.
56% hit
(16)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(1)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
59% hit
(475)
60-70% conf.
67% hit
(1,075)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(1,547)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(1,343)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(706)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,016)
60-70% conf.
66% hit
(1,294)
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(1,325)
80-90% conf.
81% hit
(1,145)
90-100% conf.
90% hit
(366)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(1,189)
60-70% conf.
66% hit
(1,208)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(1,427)
80-90% conf.
83% hit
(986)
90-100% conf.
92% hit
(336)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
54% hit
(1,602)
60-70% conf.
63% hit
(1,465)
70-80% conf.
66% hit
(1,029)
80-90% conf.
76% hit
(739)
90-100% conf.
89% hit
(311)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
41% hit
(32)
40-50% conf.
42% hit
(791)
50-60% conf.
40% hit
(1,363)
60-70% conf.
39% hit
(1,272)
70-80% conf.
35% hit
(836)
80-90% conf.
37% hit
(496)
90-100% conf.
29% hit
(48)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
70-80% conf.
73% hit
(651)
80-90% conf.
78% hit
(4,174)
90-100% conf.
100% hit
(1)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
63% hit
(16)
60-70% conf.
74% hit
(4,272)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(530)
80-90% conf.
85% hit
(20)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(445)
60-70% conf.
61% hit
(3,548)
70-80% conf.
54% hit
(842)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
57% hit
(338)
60-70% conf.
69% hit
(720)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(1,709)
80-90% conf.
86% hit
(1,962)
90-100% conf.
88% hit
(417)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(2,158)
60-70% conf.
65% hit
(1,788)
70-80% conf.
71% hit
(920)
80-90% conf.
77% hit
(234)
90-100% conf.
80% hit
(46)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(1,478)
60-70% conf.
58% hit
(1,549)
70-80% conf.
70% hit
(1,300)
80-90% conf.
80% hit
(752)
90-100% conf.
96% hit
(67)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
50-60% conf.
53% hit
(380)
60-70% conf.
68% hit
(903)
70-80% conf.
77% hit
(1,751)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(1,492)
90-100% conf.
93% hit
(620)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated