How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Track Record
Out-of-sample performance on genuinely pre-match predictionsAccuracy (7d)
66.9%
49,710 preds / 3,576 fixtures
Accuracy (30d)
66.6%
110,180 preds / 7,947 fixtures
Accuracy (60d)
66.6%
269,951 preds / 19,926 fixtures
Accuracy (90d)
66.5%
410,897 preds / 30,507 fixtures
Accuracy (120d)
66.4%
486,335 preds / 36,065 fixtures
Accuracy (180d)
65.7%
731,925 preds / 54,110 fixtures
Markets
14
FT + HT coverage
Features
182
17 groups, ablation-tested
Performance over time
Daily accuracy of evaluated predictions.
Ganhar.pt accuracy
2026-09-302026-10-30
Calibration
When the model says "X% confident", does the prediction actually hit X% of the time?
30-40% conf.
39% hit
(2,884)
40-50% conf.
44% hit
(8,118)
50-60% conf.
56% hit
(26,991)
60-70% conf.
66% hit
(24,058)
70-80% conf.
75% hit
(29,669)
80-90% conf.
84% hit
(16,499)
90-100% conf.
94% hit
(1,961)
Actual hit rate
Expected
Well calibrated
Explore trends by market · Full time and half time
Daily Accuracy — FT
Overall
66.5%
2026-09-30
2026-10-30
1X2
51.6%
O2.5
59%
BTTS
57%
O1.5
78.4%
O3.5
67.4%
DC 1X
70.9%
DC X2
64.2%
CS H
71%
CS A
78%
WTN H
77.4%
Daily Accuracy — HT
HT 1X2
43.5%
HT O0.5
72.1%
HT O1.5
61.7%
HT BTTS
78.3%
Per-Market Accuracy
Last 30 days
| Market | Preds | Baseline | Accuracy | Edge | Skill | LogLoss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC 1X | 7,923 | 67.9% | 71.1% | +3.2pp | 10.6% | 0.5945 |
|
| DC X2 | 7,923 | 55.6% | 63.7% | +8.1pp | 10.4% | 0.6344 |
|
| 1X2 | 7,924 | 44.4% | 51.9% | +7.5pp | 7.8% | 1.0084 |
|
| CS H | 7,923 | 71.4% | 71.7% | +0.3pp | 5.2% | 0.5712 |
|
| WTN H | 7,921 | 77.5% | 77.7% | +0.2pp | 5.0% | 0.5061 |
|
| CS A | 7,923 | 78.5% | 78.5% | 0pp | 4.9% | 0.4963 |
|
| O3.5 | 7,924 | 63.6% | 65% | +1.4pp | 4.4% | 0.6058 |
|
| O2.5 | 7,924 | 57.7% | 60.2% | +2.5pp | 4.0% | 0.6738 |
|
| HT 1X2 | 7,737 | 38.5% | 43.8% | +5.3pp | 3.8% | 1.0458 |
|
| O1.5 | 7,923 | 79.1% | 79% | -0.1pp | 2.7% | 0.4898 |
|
| HT O1.5 | 7,737 | 61.4% | 61.8% | +0.4pp | 2.0% | 0.6497 |
|
| HT O0.5 | 7,737 | 73.2% | 73.2% | 0pp | 1.4% | 0.575 |
|
| HT BTTS | 7,737 | 78.5% | 78.5% | 0pp | 1.3% | 0.4991 |
|
| BTTS | 7,924 | 55.9% | 56.3% | +0.4pp | 1.0% | 0.673 |
|
| Overall | 110,180 | 64.5% | 66.6% | +2.1pp | 4.6% | 0.6445 |
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.