01
Data collection and processing
Data Collection — Fixtures, scores, odds, weather, injuries, lineups, and team statistics from multiple sources.
The foundations of our methodology
A transparent approach combining statistics, advanced models and continuous evaluation.
02
Elo ratings
Elo Ratings — Dynamic team strength ratings updated after every match, with home advantage correction.
03
Statistical features
Feature Engineering — Features grouped by statistical topic including form, goals, head-to-head, weather, squad quality, and more.
04
Dixon–Coles model
Dixon-Coles Model — A classical statistical model that estimates team attack and defence parameters.
05
Machine learning models
XGBoost Models — Specialist gradient-boosted models for 14 markets, trained with ablation-tested feature selection.
06
Prediction and evaluation
Predictions — Probabilistic forecasts generated daily for upcoming matches.
14 prediction markets
Probabilities, not certainties
A 60% prediction means the model estimates the outcome will occur in roughly 6 out of 10 similar situations. It does not guarantee the result of an individual match.
Public verification
Compare predictions against actual results and review calibration by probability range on our performance page.
View performance →How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.