How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Signal Analytics
Return analysis across markets, leagues and allocation methodsTotal Signals
100,990
28,946 fixtures analysed
Win Rate
38.5%
38,839 / 100,990 correct
Weighted average across all markets. Signals on low-probability outcomes (draws, clean sheets) lower this number — what determines profitability is Yield, not Win Rate.
Yield (Equal-Weight)
-10.6%
Positive = net profit per unit risked
Growth (Proportional)
-100.0%
Risk-adjusted allocation
Cumulative Yield
Return by Market
Return by League
Top 15 by signal count
Signal Strength Distribution
Model advantage vs. implied probability
Edge = the difference between the model's estimated probability and the market-implied probability (1/odds). Bars show how many signals fall in each edge range; the line shows the win rate for each range. Note: win rate is not expected to increase linearly with edge — high-edge signals often target low-probability outcomes (draws, clean sheets) where the model sees large value relative to the market but the base win rate remains low. When a bucket contains fewer than ~50 signals, the win rate line may fluctuate significantly due to small sample size.
Return by Country
Methodology
A signal is generated when our model identifies an edge of at least 2% between its estimated probability and the market-implied probability. Only predictions created before the match starts are included — no backtesting, no hindsight.
For informational and educational purposes only. Past statistical performance does not guarantee future results. This does not constitute financial advice.
Last updated 2 hours ago
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.