How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Cruzeiro, at 49.8%. The other outcomes represent 50.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.8% · Draw: 27% · Away win: 23.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Cruzeiro 1961; Sao Paulo 1855. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 00:30
Cruzeiro
Elo 1961
2
-
0
Sao Paulo
Elo 1855
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+106
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Cruzeiro1961
Sao Paulo1855
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Cruzeiro
0Draws
2Sao Paulo
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
@ 1.89
Draw
27%
@ 3.40
Away
23%
@ 3.93
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.80
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.23
No
25%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.46
Draw
43%
@ 2.13
Away
20%
@ 4.43
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.39
No
40%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.30
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 1.97
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.