How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sao Paulo, at 47.4%. The other outcomes represent 52.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.4% · Draw: 24.3% · Away win: 28.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sao Paulo 1847; Vitoria 1831. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Sunday, Oct 11 2026
· 00:00
Sao Paulo
Elo 1847
vs
Vitoria
Elo 1831
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+17
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Sao Paulo1847
Vitoria1831
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sao Paulo
0Draws
2Vitoria
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
Home
47%
Draw
24%
Away
28%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Double Chance X2
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
34%
Draw
45%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.