How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Flamengo, at 73.4%. The other outcomes represent 26.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 73.4% · Draw: 17.2% · Away win: 9.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Flamengo 2102; Atletico-MG 1922. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Monday, Oct 26 2026
· 23:00
Flamengo
Elo 2102
3
-
2
Atletico-MG
Elo 1922
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+181
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Flamengo2102
Atletico-MG1922
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Flamengo
0Draws
0Atletico-MG
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
73%
Draw
17%
Away
9%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Double Chance X2
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
51%
Draw
38%
Away
11%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
No
31%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.