How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vitoria, at 35.1%. The other outcomes represent 64.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.1% · Draw: 30.5% · Away win: 34.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vitoria 1827; Atletico Paranaense 1902. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Saturday, Oct 24 2026
· 19:30
Vitoria
Elo 1827
1
-
1
Atletico Paranaense
Elo 1902
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-75
H2H (6)
2H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Vitoria1827
Atletico Paranaense1902
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Vitoria
0Draws
4Atletico Paranaense
6 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
35% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
Draw
31%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
24%
Draw
45%
Away
30%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.