How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atletico Paranaense, at 47.8%. The other outcomes represent 52.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.8% · Draw: 27.7% · Away win: 24.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Paranaense 1901; Atletico-MG 1924. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Thursday, Oct 8 2026
· 23:00
Atletico Paranaense
Elo 1901
2
-
2
Atletico-MG
Elo 1924
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-23
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Paranaense1901
Atletico-MG1924
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Atletico Paranaense
0Draws
1Atletico-MG
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
48%
@ 2.06
Draw
28%
@ 3.15
Away
25%
@ 3.68
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.80
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.26
No
25%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.73
No
47%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 2.65
Draw
51%
@ 2.05
Away
20%
@ 4.22
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.43
No
39%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.32
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 2.04
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.