How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vitoria, at 61.4%. The other outcomes represent 38.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 61.4% · Draw: 21.2% · Away win: 17.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vitoria 1817; Chapecoense-sc 1751. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Wednesday, Oct 7 2026
· 23:00
Vitoria
Elo 1817
4
-
0
Chapecoense-sc
Elo 1751
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
+67
H2H (1)
0H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Vitoria1817
Chapecoense-sc1751
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Vitoria
1Draws
0Chapecoense-sc
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
61% conf.
CORRECT
Home
61%
@ 1.67
Draw
21%
@ 3.75
Away
17%
@ 4.76
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.81
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.17
No
25%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 2.21
Draw
51%
@ 2.21
Away
18%
@ 5.01
HT Both Teams Score
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.36
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.26
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
@ 1.86
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.