How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is River Plate, at 45.2%. The other outcomes represent 54.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 27.4% · Draw: 27.4% · Away win: 45.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sarmiento Junin 1653; River Plate 1811. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 17:45
Sarmiento Junin
Elo 1653
vs
River Plate
Elo 1811
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-158
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Sarmiento Junin1653
River Plate1811
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Sarmiento Junin
0Draws
2River Plate
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
Home
27%
Draw
27%
Away
45%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
19%
Draw
40%
Away
41%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.