How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Recoleta, at 43.8%. The other outcomes represent 56.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.8% · Draw: 24.8% · Away win: 31.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Recoleta 1484; Santiago Wanderers 1560. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 18:00
Recoleta
Elo 1484
vs
Santiago Wanderers
Elo 1560
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
-76
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Recoleta1484
Santiago Wanderers1560
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Recoleta
0Draws
0Santiago Wanderers
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
Home
44%
@ 2.32
Draw
25%
@ 3.16
Away
31%
@ 2.78
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
@ 1.69
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
@ 1.35
No
35%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
Yes
61%
@ 1.49
No
39%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
Home
25%
@ 2.96
Draw
47%
@ 2.09
Away
29%
@ 3.40
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
Yes
68%
@ 1.37
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
71%
@ 1.27
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
Yes
50%
@ 1.91
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.