How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is San Marcos de Arica, at 37.8%. The other outcomes represent 62.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.1% · Draw: 33.1% · Away win: 37.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Deportes Santa Cruz 1430; San Marcos de Arica 1523. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 23:00
Deportes Santa Cruz
Elo 1430
vs
San Marcos de Arica
Elo 1523
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-93
H2H (3)
1H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Deportes Santa Cruz1430
San Marcos de Arica1523
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Deportes Santa Cruz
2Draws
0San Marcos de Arica
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
Home
29%
@ 2.90
Draw
33%
@ 3.17
Away
38%
@ 2.23
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
Yes
58%
@ 1.88
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
@ 1.53
No
47%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
Yes
73%
@ 1.31
No
27%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
22%
@ 3.63
Draw
48%
@ 2.02
Away
30%
@ 2.91
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
@ 1.42
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
Yes
77%
@ 1.36
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.