How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rio Ave U23, at 44.8%. The other outcomes represent 55.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.8% · Draw: 28.8% · Away win: 26.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Rio Ave U23 1524; Moreirense U23 1516. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Revelação U23 · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 14:00
Rio Ave U23
Elo 1524
1
-
1
Moreirense U23
Elo 1516
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+8
Elo rating comparison
Rio Ave U231524
Moreirense U231516
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Rio Ave U23
—Draws
—Moreirense U23
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
Draw
29%
Away
26%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
Draw
42%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.