How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Millonarios, at 35.5%. The other outcomes represent 64.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.5% · Draw: 30% · Away win: 35.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Independiente Medellin 1717; Millonarios 1736. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 01:05
Independiente Medellin
Elo 1717
vs
Millonarios
Elo 1736
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-19
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Independiente Medellin1717
Millonarios1736
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Independiente Medellin
2Draws
0Millonarios
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
Home
35%
@ 2.68
Draw
30%
@ 3.10
Away
36%
@ 2.63
Both Teams to Score
61% conf.
Yes
61%
@ 1.79
No
39%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
Yes
53%
@ 1.44
No
47%
Double Chance X2
68% conf.
Yes
68%
@ 1.43
No
32%
Half-Time Result
49% conf.
Home
29%
@ 3.25
Draw
49%
@ 2.05
Away
22%
@ 3.21
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
@ 1.42
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
71%
@ 1.34
No
29%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
Yes
54%
@ 2.08
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.