How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Once Caldas, at 53.0%. The other outcomes represent 47.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 53% · Draw: 25.2% · Away win: 21.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Once Caldas 1693; Alianza Valledupar 1550. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 23:00
Once Caldas
Elo 1693
1
-
0
Alianza Valledupar
Elo 1550
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
+144
H2H (5)
4H
1D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Once Caldas1693
Alianza Valledupar1550
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Once Caldas
1Draws
0Alianza Valledupar
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
CORRECT
Home
53%
@ 1.58
Draw
25%
@ 3.71
Away
22%
@ 5.94
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 2.00
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.12
No
16%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
@ 2.14
Draw
42%
@ 2.15
Away
14%
@ 5.75
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.40
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
@ 1.31
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 2.01
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.