How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SC Braga, at 61.7%. The other outcomes represent 38.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 17.9% · Draw: 20.4% · Away win: 61.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estrela 1743; SC Braga 2102. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #661 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Thursday, Sep 10 2026
· 19:15
Estrela
Elo 1743
2
-
1
SC Braga
Elo 2102
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
-360
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Estrela1743
SC Braga2102
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Estrela
2Draws
0SC Braga
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
62% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
Draw
20%
Away
62%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Double Chance 1X
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance X2
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
82%
No
18%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
Draw
40%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.