How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Benfica, at 77.6%. The other outcomes represent 22.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 6.2% · Draw: 16.2% · Away win: 77.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Moreirense 1778; Benfica 2191. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #661 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Wednesday, Sep 9 2026
· 19:45
Moreirense
Elo 1778
0
-
4
Benfica
Elo 2191
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-412
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Moreirense1778
Benfica2191
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Moreirense
0Draws
2Benfica
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
78% conf.
CORRECT
Home
6%
Draw
16%
Away
78%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Away Clean Sheet
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
No
45%
Home Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance X2
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
No
7%
Half-Time Result
59% conf.
CORRECT
Home
9%
Draw
31%
Away
59%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
94% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
6%
No
94%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.