How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Pontypridd Town, at 73.0%. The other outcomes represent 27.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 73% · Draw: 13% · Away win: 13.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Pontypridd Town 1523; Llantwit Major 1454. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
FAW Championship · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 18:30
Pontypridd Town
Elo 1523
4
-
1
Llantwit Major
Elo 1454
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+68
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Pontypridd Town1523
Llantwit Major1454
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Pontypridd Town
0Draws
2Llantwit Major
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
73% conf.
CORRECT
Home
73%
@ 1.23
Draw
13%
@ 5.80
Away
14%
@ 8.25
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.70
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.05
No
16%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
58%
@ 1.62
Draw
27%
@ 2.87
Away
16%
@ 6.77
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.17
No
19%
HT Over 1.5
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.08
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.35
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.89
No
46%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.