How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Envigado, at 58.7%. The other outcomes represent 41.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 58.7% · Draw: 21.8% · Away win: 19.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Envigado 1528; Orsomarso 1348. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B · Thursday, Oct 1 2026
· 20:30
Envigado
Elo 1528
vs
Orsomarso
Elo 1348
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+180
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Envigado1528
Orsomarso1348
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Envigado
0Draws
0Orsomarso
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
59% conf.
Home
59%
Draw
22%
Away
20%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
Home
48%
Draw
36%
Away
16%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.