How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Penarol, at 38.9%. The other outcomes represent 61.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.3% · Draw: 31.8% · Away win: 38.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atletico Torque 1754; Penarol 1807. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera División · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 23:00
Atletico Torque
Elo 1754
vs
Penarol
Elo 1807
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-53
H2H (5)
0H
0D
5A
Elo rating comparison
Atletico Torque1754
Penarol1807
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Atletico Torque
0Draws
5Penarol
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
Home
29%
@ 3.26
Draw
32%
@ 3.17
Away
39%
@ 2.12
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
Yes
56%
@ 1.82
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
Yes
78%
@ 1.29
No
22%
Half-Time Result
51% conf.
Home
17%
@ 3.90
Draw
51%
@ 2.06
Away
31%
@ 2.77
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
62% conf.
Yes
62%
@ 1.43
No
38%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
Yes
75%
@ 1.34
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
Yes
51%
@ 2.08
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.