How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Louletano, at 82.0%. The other outcomes represent 18.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 7.2% · Draw: 10.8% · Away win: 82%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Castrense 1442; Louletano 1691. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #661 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça de Portugal · Sunday, Aug 30 2026
· 16:00
Castrense
Elo 1442
0
-
1
Louletano
Elo 1691
FT
HT 0-0
Elo rating comparison
Castrense1442
Louletano1691
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Castrense
—Draws
—Louletano
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
82% conf.
CORRECT
Home
7%
Draw
11%
Away
82%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance X2
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
92%
No
8%
Half-Time Result
63% conf.
WRONG
Home
10%
Draw
27%
Away
63%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
WRONG
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
No
42%
Home Win to Nil
95% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
5%
No
95%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.