How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is SC Covilha, at 49.0%. The other outcomes represent 51.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49% · Draw: 30.6% · Away win: 20.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: SC Covilha 1518; Mortágua 1527. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #661 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça de Portugal · Sunday, Aug 30 2026
· 16:00
SC Covilha
Elo 1518
0
-
0
Mortágua
Elo 1527
PEN
FT 90' 0-0
HT 0-0
Predictions evaluated on 90-minute result
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-9
Elo rating comparison
SC Covilha1518
Mortágua1527
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—SC Covilha
—Draws
—Mortágua
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
WRONG
Home
49%
@ 1.63
Draw
31%
@ 3.52
Away
20%
@ 4.93
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Double Chance 1X
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.13
No
18%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 2.09
No
48%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
35%
@ 2.25
Draw
46%
@ 2.06
Away
19%
@ 5.54
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.43
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Over 1.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
63%
@ 1.39
No
37%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.