How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lusitano Évora 1911, at 45.9%. The other outcomes represent 54.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45.9% · Draw: 30.3% · Away win: 23.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lusitano Évora 1911 1668; CF Os Belenenses 1764. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #661 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Taça de Portugal · Sunday, Aug 30 2026
· 16:00
Lusitano Évora 1911
Elo 1668
1
-
2
CF Os Belenenses
Elo 1764
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-95
H2H (1)
0H
0D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Lusitano Évora 19111668
CF Os Belenenses1764
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Lusitano Évora 1911
0Draws
1CF Os Belenenses
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
46%
@ 4.22
Draw
30%
@ 3.48
Away
24%
@ 1.74
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Away Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Clean Sheet
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Double Chance 1X
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
@ 1.93
No
23%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.18
No
44%
Half-Time Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
@ 4.75
Draw
47%
@ 2.13
Away
20%
@ 2.32
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.39
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Over 1.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.32
No
34%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.