How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Como, at 55.4%. The other outcomes represent 44.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 18% · Draw: 26.6% · Away win: 55.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Genoa 1862; Como 2133. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–4. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Friday, Sep 4 2026
· 18:45
Genoa
Elo 1862
1
-
4
Como
Elo 2133
FT
HT 1-3
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-271
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Genoa1862
Como2133
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Genoa
0Draws
3Como
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
CORRECT
Home
18%
@ 4.92
Draw
27%
@ 3.30
Away
55%
@ 1.79
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Double Chance X2
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.17
No
23%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
18%
@ 5.36
Draw
44%
@ 2.01
Away
38%
@ 2.41
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.49
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
@ 1.41
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.