How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Parma, at 38.1%. The other outcomes represent 61.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 38.1% · Draw: 34.9% · Away win: 27%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Parma 1820; Monza 1836. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 13:00
Parma
Elo 1820
1
-
1
Monza
Elo 1836
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-16
Elo rating comparison
Parma1820
Monza1836
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Parma
—Draws
—Monza
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
@ 2.32
Draw
35%
@ 3.08
Away
27%
@ 3.26
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.33
No
29%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
60%
@ 1.59
No
40%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 2.95
Draw
45%
@ 1.99
Away
23%
@ 3.96
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.49
No
32%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.43
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 3.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Win to Nil
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.