How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Portsmouth, at 41.1%. The other outcomes represent 58.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.1% · Draw: 32.5% · Away win: 26.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Portsmouth 1752; Derby 1761. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Tuesday, Sep 1 2026
· 18:45
Portsmouth
Elo 1752
0
-
2
Derby
Elo 1761
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-9
H2H (3)
0H
1D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Portsmouth1752
Derby1761
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Portsmouth
1Draws
2Derby
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
41%
@ 2.20
Draw
32%
@ 3.29
Away
26%
@ 3.25
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 1.78
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
65%
@ 1.31
No
35%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.64
No
35%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
30%
@ 2.78
Draw
41%
@ 2.09
Away
29%
@ 3.82
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
71%
@ 1.41
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.32
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.