How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Norwich, at 44.4%. The other outcomes represent 55.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.6% · Draw: 29% · Away win: 44.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Stoke City 1690; Norwich 1850. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Tuesday, Sep 1 2026
· 19:00
Stoke City
Elo 1690
1
-
0
Norwich
Elo 1850
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-160
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Stoke City1690
Norwich1850
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Stoke City
0Draws
0Norwich
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 3.01
Draw
29%
@ 3.40
Away
44%
@ 2.27
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
@ 1.63
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.61
No
46%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
@ 1.36
No
26%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
@ 3.48
Draw
41%
@ 2.20
Away
37%
@ 2.80
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.34
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
@ 1.25
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 1.80
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
87% conf.
WRONG
Yes
13%
No
87%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.