How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Borussia Dortmund, at 44.4%. The other outcomes represent 55.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.5% · Draw: 20.1% · Away win: 44.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: 1899 Hoffenheim 2067; Borussia Dortmund 2180. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 13:30
1899 Hoffenheim
Elo 2067
2
-
3
Borussia Dortmund
Elo 2180
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-113
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
1899 Hoffenheim2067
Borussia Dortmund2180
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
21899 Hoffenheim
0Draws
0Borussia Dortmund
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
@ 2.59
Draw
20%
@ 3.82
Away
44%
@ 2.40
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.39
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
@ 1.55
No
50%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.48
No
24%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
24%
@ 2.95
Draw
38%
@ 2.45
Away
38%
@ 2.82
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.23
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.12
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.44
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.