How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is RB Leipzig, at 50.8%. The other outcomes represent 49.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.5% · Draw: 22.6% · Away win: 50.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Werder Bremen 1919; RB Leipzig 2108. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 13:30
Werder Bremen
Elo 1919
3
-
1
RB Leipzig
Elo 2108
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-189
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Werder Bremen1919
RB Leipzig2108
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Werder Bremen
0Draws
2RB Leipzig
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
51% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 3.21
Draw
23%
@ 3.77
Away
51%
@ 2.05
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.46
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Double Chance 1X
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance X2
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
@ 1.34
No
27%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
@ 3.50
Draw
42%
@ 2.41
Away
37%
@ 2.49
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.25
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.15
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.50
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
40%
No
60%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.