How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FSV Mainz 05, at 42.1%. The other outcomes represent 57.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.3% · Draw: 26.7% · Away win: 42.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Hamburger SV 1953; FSV Mainz 05 2069. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–5. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 13:30
Hamburger SV
Elo 1953
0
-
5
FSV Mainz 05
Elo 2069
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-116
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Hamburger SV1953
FSV Mainz 052069
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Hamburger SV
2Draws
0FSV Mainz 05
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
@ 2.56
Draw
27%
@ 3.52
Away
42%
@ 2.55
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
54%
@ 1.53
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
WRONG
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
@ 1.50
No
38%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.48
No
36%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
26%
@ 3.04
Draw
45%
@ 2.26
Away
29%
@ 3.03
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.31
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
WRONG
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.20
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.67
No
42%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.