How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lille, at 44.5%. The other outcomes represent 55.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 26.5% · Draw: 29% · Away win: 44.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Toulouse 1901; Lille 2082. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Thursday, Sep 3 2026
· 18:45
Toulouse
Elo 1901
0
-
1
Lille
Elo 2082
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-181
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Toulouse1901
Lille2082
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Toulouse
0Draws
2Lille
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
CORRECT
Home
27%
@ 3.96
Draw
29%
@ 3.51
Away
44%
@ 1.95
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 1.70
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
WRONG
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.24
No
26%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
21%
@ 4.32
Draw
42%
@ 2.20
Away
37%
@ 2.46
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.36
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
@ 1.26
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.