How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lyon, at 57.8%. The other outcomes represent 42.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 57.8% · Draw: 24.3% · Away win: 17.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lyon 2077; Auxerre 1867. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Friday, Sep 4 2026
· 17:00
Lyon
Elo 2077
3
-
1
Auxerre
Elo 1867
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+210
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Lyon2077
Auxerre1867
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Lyon
0Draws
0Auxerre
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
58%
@ 1.45
Draw
24%
@ 4.68
Away
18%
@ 6.74
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
@ 1.73
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Double Chance 1X
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
88%
@ 1.11
No
12%
Double Chance X2
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
50%
@ 1.90
Draw
36%
@ 2.51
Away
14%
@ 5.87
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
WRONG
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.27
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.17
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
@ 1.59
No
38%
Over 3.5 Goals
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Win to Nil
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
35%
No
65%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.