How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Paris Saint Germain, at 60.2%. The other outcomes represent 39.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 60.2% · Draw: 17.7% · Away win: 22.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Paris Saint Germain 2240; Monaco 2059. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Friday, Sep 4 2026
· 19:05
Paris Saint Germain
Elo 2240
1
-
2
Monaco
Elo 2059
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+181
H2H (7)
2H
2D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Paris Saint Germain2240
Monaco2059
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Paris Saint Germain
2Draws
3Monaco
7 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
60% conf.
WRONG
Home
60%
@ 1.35
Draw
18%
@ 5.52
Away
22%
@ 7.64
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.58
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Home Clean Sheet
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Double Chance 1X
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
@ 1.09
No
22%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
@ 1.73
Draw
33%
@ 2.83
Away
19%
@ 6.24
HT Both Teams Score
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
HT Over 0.5
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.19
No
20%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 1.5 Goals
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
83%
@ 1.09
No
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.37
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.