How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is FC Porto, at 83.8%. The other outcomes represent 16.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 83.8% · Draw: 9.9% · Away win: 6.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Porto 2155; Moreirense 1778. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Friday, Sep 4 2026
· 19:15
FC Porto
Elo 2155
2
-
1
Moreirense
Elo 1778
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+377
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
FC Porto2155
Moreirense1778
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2FC Porto
0Draws
0Moreirense
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
84% conf.
CORRECT
Home
84%
@ 1.15
Draw
10%
@ 7.50
Away
6%
@ 19.41
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Away Clean Sheet
94% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
6%
No
94%
Home Clean Sheet
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
62%
@ 1.44
No
38%
Double Chance 1X
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
93%
@ 1.02
No
7%
Double Chance X2
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Half-Time Result
58% conf.
WRONG
Home
58%
@ 1.48
Draw
33%
@ 2.87
Away
8%
@ 13.64
HT Both Teams Score
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.28
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
@ 1.17
No
21%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
@ 1.60
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Home Win to Nil
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
@ 1.57
No
40%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.