How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting CP, at 82.2%. The other outcomes represent 17.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 82.2% · Draw: 11.8% · Away win: 6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sporting CP 2209; Nacional 1709. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 19:30
Sporting CP
Elo 2209
2
-
0
Nacional
Elo 1709
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+500
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Sporting CP2209
Nacional1709
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Sporting CP
0Draws
0Nacional
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
82% conf.
CORRECT
Home
82%
@ 1.18
Draw
12%
@ 7.01
Away
6%
@ 13.45
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Away Clean Sheet
95% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
5%
No
95%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.89
No
47%
Double Chance 1X
95% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
95%
@ 1.04
No
5%
Double Chance X2
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Half-Time Result
63% conf.
CORRECT
Home
63%
@ 1.52
Draw
28%
@ 2.99
Away
9%
@ 9.42
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
87%
@ 1.20
No
13%
HT Over 1.5
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
@ 2.01
No
48%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.10
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
@ 1.39
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
@ 2.00
No
49%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.