How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Burnley, at 50.3%. The other outcomes represent 49.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 50.3% · Draw: 27.1% · Away win: 22.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Burnley 1765; Bristol City 1765. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Championship · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 14:00
Burnley
Elo 1765
1
-
2
Bristol City
Elo 1765
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
0
Elo rating comparison
Burnley1765
Bristol City1765
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Burnley
—Draws
—Bristol City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
50% conf.
WRONG
Home
50%
@ 1.91
Draw
27%
@ 3.56
Away
23%
@ 3.79
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
82%
@ 1.24
No
18%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
CORRECT
Home
39%
@ 2.45
Draw
41%
@ 2.20
Away
21%
@ 4.25
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
67%
@ 1.35
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
@ 1.26
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 1.85
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.