How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Famalicao, at 41.3%. The other outcomes represent 58.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 29.1% · Draw: 29.6% · Away win: 41.3%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Estrela 1743; Famalicao 1875. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 14:30
Estrela
Elo 1743
2
-
2
Famalicao
Elo 1875
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
-132
H2H (3)
1H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Estrela1743
Famalicao1875
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Estrela
2Draws
0Famalicao
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
29%
@ 2.95
Draw
30%
@ 3.14
Away
41%
@ 2.44
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.52
No
37%
Double Chance X2
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.37
No
28%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
@ 3.57
Draw
46%
@ 2.01
Away
34%
@ 3.06
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.45
No
37%
HT Over 1.5
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Over 1.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.37
No
39%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.