How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Barcelona, at 70.8%. The other outcomes represent 29.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 12.4% · Draw: 16.8% · Away win: 70.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Valencia 1928; Barcelona 2299. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–5. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 14:15
Valencia
Elo 1928
0
-
5
Barcelona
Elo 2299
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
-371
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Valencia1928
Barcelona2299
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Valencia
0Draws
0Barcelona
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
71% conf.
CORRECT
Home
12%
@ 9.39
Draw
17%
@ 5.93
Away
71%
@ 1.29
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
58%
@ 1.66
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Home Clean Sheet
90% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
10%
No
90%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance X2
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
@ 1.06
No
15%
Half-Time Result
50% conf.
CORRECT
Home
14%
@ 7.09
Draw
35%
@ 2.83
Away
50%
@ 1.67
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
@ 1.20
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.09
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.37
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
92% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
8%
No
92%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.