How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Real Sociedad, at 40.0%. The other outcomes represent 60.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.3% · Draw: 26.7% · Away win: 40%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Elche 1880; Real Sociedad 1971. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
La Liga · Monday, Sep 7 2026
· 19:30
Elche
Elo 1880
2
-
3
Real Sociedad
Elo 1971
FT
HT 0-2
Home Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Elo Advantage
-91
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Elche1880
Real Sociedad1971
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Elche
0Draws
2Real Sociedad
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
CORRECT
Home
33%
@ 2.92
Draw
27%
@ 3.38
Away
40%
@ 2.38
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
@ 1.65
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
@ 1.57
No
36%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.39
No
34%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
32%
@ 3.42
Draw
39%
@ 2.17
Away
29%
@ 2.92
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.37
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
WRONG
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.26
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.84
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.