How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Farense, at 43.2%. The other outcomes represent 56.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.2% · Draw: 26.2% · Away win: 30.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Farense 1696; Chaves 1655. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda Liga · Sunday, Oct 4 2026
· 10:00
Farense
Elo 1696
vs
Chaves
Elo 1655
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+41
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Farense1696
Chaves1655
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Farense
0Draws
3Chaves
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
Home
43%
Draw
26%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
30%
Draw
44%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.