How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Santa Clara, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 42.9% · Draw: 30.2% · Away win: 27%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Santa Clara 1860; Rio Ave 1772. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 14:30
Santa Clara
Elo 1860
4
-
0
Rio Ave
Elo 1772
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+89
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Santa Clara1860
Rio Ave1772
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Santa Clara
0Draws
2Rio Ave
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
43%
@ 1.83
Draw
30%
@ 3.37
Away
27%
@ 4.54
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Double Chance 1X
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.19
No
23%
Double Chance X2
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
34%
@ 2.42
Draw
48%
@ 2.06
Away
18%
@ 5.03
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.46
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.39
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
WRONG
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.