How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Rivers United, at 38.6%. The other outcomes represent 61.4% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 34.5% · Draw: 26.9% · Away win: 38.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Katsina United 1538; Rivers United 1646. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
NPFL · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 15:00
Katsina United
Elo 1538
vs
Rivers United
Elo 1646
Home Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-108
H2H (5)
0H
1D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Katsina United1538
Rivers United1646
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Katsina United
1Draws
4Rivers United
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
Home
35%
Draw
27%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
51%
No
49%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
32%
Draw
44%
Away
24%
HT Both Teams Score
84% conf.
Yes
16%
No
84%
HT Over 0.5
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
55% conf.
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 3.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.