How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Sporting Lagos, at 40.0%. The other outcomes represent 60.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 40% · Draw: 28.8% · Away win: 31.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Sporting Lagos 1517; Ikorodu City 1597. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
NPFL · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 15:00
Sporting Lagos
Elo 1517
vs
Ikorodu City
Elo 1597
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Elo Advantage
-80
Elo rating comparison
Sporting Lagos1517
Ikorodu City1597
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Sporting Lagos
—Draws
—Ikorodu City
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
Home
40%
Draw
29%
Away
31%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
Home Clean Sheet
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
34%
Draw
41%
Away
25%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.