How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Vitória SC, at 47.4%. The other outcomes represent 52.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.4% · Draw: 28.4% · Away win: 24.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Vitória SC 1885; Casa Pia 1683. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 0–0. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primeira Liga · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 17:00
Vitória SC
Elo 1885
0
-
0
Casa Pia
Elo 1683
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+202
H2H (3)
0H
1D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Vitória SC1885
Casa Pia1683
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Vitória SC
1Draws
2Casa Pia
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
WRONG
Home
47%
@ 1.55
Draw
28%
@ 3.89
Away
24%
@ 6.14
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
WRONG
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
@ 1.12
No
16%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
@ 2.08
Draw
40%
@ 2.20
Away
17%
@ 6.20
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
74%
@ 1.40
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
69%
@ 1.30
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Win to Nil
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.