How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is União de Leiria, at 47.1%. The other outcomes represent 52.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.1% · Draw: 27.9% · Away win: 25.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: União de Leiria 1707; Portimonense 1593. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda Liga · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 17:00
União de Leiria
Elo 1707
1
-
0
Portimonense
Elo 1593
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
+114
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
União de Leiria1707
Portimonense1593
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2União de Leiria
0Draws
0Portimonense
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
CORRECT
Home
47%
@ 1.87
Draw
28%
@ 3.45
Away
25%
@ 3.79
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
55%
@ 1.68
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.24
No
30%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.83
No
47%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
37%
@ 2.45
Draw
40%
@ 2.22
Away
24%
@ 4.34
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.35
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
73%
@ 1.24
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
51%
@ 1.83
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.