How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Marseille, at 55.0%. The other outcomes represent 45.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 55% · Draw: 21.4% · Away win: 23.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Marseille 2021; Paris FC 1962. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–3. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Ligue 1 · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 18:45
Marseille
Elo 2021
2
-
3
Paris FC
Elo 1962
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
+59
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Marseille2021
Paris FC1962
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Marseille
2Draws
0Paris FC
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
55%
@ 1.78
Draw
21%
@ 3.88
Away
24%
@ 4.18
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
@ 1.59
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
16%
No
84%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
@ 1.22
No
22%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
39%
@ 2.27
Draw
39%
@ 2.35
Away
22%
@ 4.34
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.30
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.19
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.64
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.