How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Genoa, at 44.9%. The other outcomes represent 55.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 44.9% · Draw: 33.5% · Away win: 21.6%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Genoa 1862; Frosinone 1903. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Serie A · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 13:00
Genoa
Elo 1862
1
-
1
Frosinone
Elo 1903
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
4D
0L
Elo Advantage
-41
Elo rating comparison
Genoa1862
Frosinone1903
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Genoa
—Draws
—Frosinone
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
WRONG
Home
45%
@ 1.82
Draw
33%
@ 3.42
Away
22%
@ 4.56
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Double Chance 1X
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
@ 1.18
No
34%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
@ 1.98
No
36%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
WRONG
Home
27%
@ 2.44
Draw
48%
@ 2.07
Away
25%
@ 4.96
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.45
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.38
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 3.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Win to Nil
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.