How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bayer Leverkusen, at 53.0%. The other outcomes represent 47.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 22% · Draw: 25.1% · Away win: 53%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: FC Augsburg 1964; Bayer Leverkusen 2165. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Bundesliga · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 13:30
FC Augsburg
Elo 1964
2
-
2
Bayer Leverkusen
Elo 2165
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-201
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
FC Augsburg1964
Bayer Leverkusen2165
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2FC Augsburg
0Draws
0Bayer Leverkusen
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
53% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
@ 4.26
Draw
25%
@ 4.25
Away
53%
@ 1.72
Both Teams to Score
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
63%
@ 1.43
No
37%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
87% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
13%
No
87%
Double Chance 1X
62% conf.
WRONG
Yes
38%
No
62%
Double Chance X2
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
@ 1.23
No
18%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
19%
@ 4.32
Draw
36%
@ 2.60
Away
45%
@ 2.15
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.22
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.09
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
68%
@ 1.40
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 2.05
No
48%
Home Win to Nil
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.