How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Lusitânia Lourosa, at 36.1%. The other outcomes represent 63.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.1% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 35.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa 1675; AVS 1690. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda Liga · Monday, Sep 7 2026
· 17:00
Lusitânia Lourosa
Elo 1675
2
-
1
AVS
Elo 1690
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
2W
0D
3L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-16
Elo rating comparison
Lusitânia Lourosa1675
AVS1690
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Lusitânia Lourosa
—Draws
—AVS
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
36% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
@ 2.12
Draw
28%
@ 3.15
Away
36%
@ 3.35
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Home Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.29
No
35%
Double Chance X2
60% conf.
WRONG
Yes
60%
@ 1.64
No
40%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
CORRECT
Home
31%
@ 2.79
Draw
42%
@ 2.03
Away
28%
@ 4.12
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.44
No
33%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
72%
@ 1.35
No
28%
Over 2.5 Goals
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 3.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Win to Nil
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.